THEhalving of Bitcoin represents a sort of stone guest in the last few months. It is indeed difficult to talk about BTC without remembering the impending halving of the rewards provided for miners. A factor which could have a significant influence on the listing of the queen of digital currencies, especially in a particular period such as that represented by the emergency coronavirus.
Just as far as thehalving, in the past days Roger Ver said he didn't expect anything special, considering what happened after the first two. A thesis that, however, does not seem to be shared by other observers and by BitMEX.
The BitMEX report
According l 'exchange of cryptocurrencies BitMEX, the hashrate of Bitcoin (BTC) could drop 30% after the halving. The event, which is expected in May, could therefore lead to a real drop in profits for the industry mining, halving them as the rewards provided for the extraction activity.
One figure, the one announced by the well-known electronic money changer, suggested by the price level of the token and which does not take into account the transaction fees.
What is the data on the hashrate derived from?
The data on the decrease of the hashrate, which could also reach 35% in the most pessimistic hypothesis, is deduced on the basis of the existing structure of the mining industry and on the hypothesis that BTC's price shouldn't change much in the weeks that separate us from halving.
It remains to be seen, however, whether this prediction will be reflected in reality. In fact, some remain unknowns that could significantly move the data, starting from the behavior of the mining companies. Which, presumably, should continue to operate as long as revenue exceeds production costs.
It should also be remembered that users of Antminer S9 or of a previous generation will suffer losses in the event that the BTC price falls between $ 5000 and $ 4000. Unless the cost of electricity falls below 4 cents / kWh.
Valarhash Baite's decision
To try to understand what could really happen, we can analyze the decision made recently by Valarhash Cabins. It is a company operating in China, which has practically cut down its mining activities for Bitcoin, waiting to convert them in favor of Altcoins, now considered more profitable.
A decision of no small importance, considering how the extraction activities attributable to the company had reached About 9% in terms of network hashrate.
Much depends on the evolution of the markets
At this point, much could depend on the evolution of the markets. If BTC continues its upward movement, very pronounced in recent days, mining companies may decide not to disembark from the ship. At least the most solid ones.
On the other hand there could be a real generalized stampede. In this regard, a recent Coin Metrics study, according to which the pressure from miners in the form of massive Bitcoin sales could intensify in the coming weeks.
A prediction based in particular on the fact that thehalving of Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Bitcoin SV (BSV) is now near and will therefore take place much earlier than that of Bitcoin. All that remains is to wait to better understand who will be right on the next evolution of the market.