The topic of Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle and its effects on the long-term price of BTC is a topic that has been much discussed within the cryptocurrency community. The analysts of cryptocurrency they especially predicted that the price of Bitcoin would have reached $ 100.000 by 2021. However, this level never came, and now analysts are wondering what will happen in the next six or twelve months.
At the moment, the price of BTC is under $ 40.000. Many technical analysis metrics suggest that the price is more likely to drop further, rather than recovering the $ 40.000 to $ 45.000 range.
In this context, the cryptocurrency analyst known on Twitter under the pseudonym “Wolves of CryptoHe discussed the four-year cycle theory, according to which the "most likely bear market bottom for Bitcoin will take place in November / December 2022". As per projection, Bitcoin hit its last cycle high reaching $ 68.789 on November 10, 2021. So now, the BTC market is in the corrective phase, usually seen after the top of the cycle.
The analyst specifically stated that the 200-week simple moving average has been the long-tested bear market underlying indicator for Bitcoin, and therefore, the low is likely to be located at $ 24.000. If this model is correct, we will see Bitcoin surpass its all-time high sometime between August and September of 2023.
Independent market analyst Willy Woo has hinted that the Bitcoin fund may arrive before the end of 2022, highlighting how the cryptocurrency is currently a bit.
Cryptocurrency market analyst Philip Swift has suggested that Bitcoin may be in an optimal accumulation range. The AASI - or active sentiment indicator of addresses - indicates this point for the buying zone.
"AASI is back in the green zone. This suggests that the change in the price of Bitcoin is at a reasonable level compared to the change in active addressesSwift said. "This instrument has a good success rate in the bull and bear markets to signal a medium term low ”.
The AASI reading is currently similar to the readings it has had in the past. For example, the price of Bitcoin was quite weak over the same period, and it rose in price a few weeks or months later. In general, Bitcoin is following a four-year cycle, but the increase is happening at a slower pace than expected.